Learning and Discovery

نویسندگان

  • Simon Grant
  • John Quiggin
چکیده

We formulate a dynamic framework for an individual decisionmaker within which discovery of previously unconsidered propositions is possible. Using a game-theoretic representation of the state space as a tree structure generated by the actions of agents (including acts of nature), we show how the existence of unconsidered propositions can be represented by a coarsening of the state space. Furthermore we develop a syntax rich enough to describe the individual’s awareness that currently unconsidered propositions may be discovered in the future. We consider quanti…ed beliefs derived as subjective probabilities conditional on implicit beliefs about unconsidered propositions. We derive conditions under which a Bayesian learning approach can be applied to a subset of known propositions. We show that our model of quanti…ed beliefs encompasses the case when individuals observe events previously considered impossible, and discuss the implications for the endogenous discovery of new propositions. JEL Classi…cation: D80, D82

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تاریخ انتشار 2006